There IS no global warming?

Recently on an email list, Hiazar Hiazarus stated this: “It was hotter in the 30s and much hotter during the medieval warming period. Long term it’s been cooling for the last 13 thousand years after a sharp warming that ended the last ice age. We are in an interglacial period that probably will end on the next thousand years. If carbon goes below 200 parts/million then agriculture ends because plants cant grow fast enough. There’s been a warming since the 1750s when the little ice age ended.”

This is a number of separate claims. Let’s examine each.

1930s

globaltemp

This graph of global temperature records since 1850 is from Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit in 2013, who got the data from Morice et al., (2012). He is one of the authors of this paper.

It shows that no, the 1930s were NOT hotter than now. The graph sets 1940 as 0. Compared to that, global temps are as much higher as that period was compared to the lowest during the time period covered: 1910. That is, the rise between 1910 and 2012 doubled compared to the rise between 1910 and 1940.

There was indeed a slight cooling between 1940 and 1985, but it can be seen that it wasn’t a big deal. The reason is explained in an essay by Anne-Marie Blackburn in Skeptical Science. In summary, this was due to sulphate aeorosols in the atmosphere. The source was in part a number of large volcanic eruptions, in part industrial pollution. That is, it’s like walking under the shade of a tree on a hot day. While you are shielded from sunshine, you feel a little cooler, but the day hasn’t cooled.

Medieval warm period

This is a “brief climatic interval that is hypothesized to have occurred from approximately 900 CE to 1300.” Experts don’t even agree that there was global warming during this time. Things certainly were warmer in Europe, Asia and Greenland, but there is argument regarding whether that applied elsewhere on Earth. [All my quotes here are from the Encyclopaedia Britannica.]

Naturally, the technology of temperature measurement was not yet available then, even for those regions. “The climatic conditions of older periods, however, have to be ‘reconstructed’ with the help of historical documents (which contain figures on food production, the length of growing seasons, and the duration of ice on bodies of water) and other indirect measures of climate (including ‘climate proxies’ such as tree rings, ice cores, and sediment cores)… There is little evidence that such conditions prevailed on a global scale, however. Indeed, some climate proxies point to several periods of extended drought during the MWP in some locations, such as the Sierra Nevada mountains of North America, parts of Australia, and the Asian steppe, whereas other areas, such as northern China, experienced a mix of heavy rainfall and drought.”

Even assuming that the effect was global, this graph from Morberg et al. (2005) shows that at its highest, it was about that toward the end of the 20th Century. Since then, every year but one has exceeded global temps of that century’s highest, 1998.
moberg

Also, the Medieval Warm Period was due to dissimilar mechanisms from the present one. That was a period with very low volcanic activity, while, as I’ve stated, recently we’ve had a lot of sulphates in the stratosphere, some from volcanoes. Industrial air pollution has a complex effect. Some stuff, like tiny black carbon particles, substantially add to warming. However, overall, the haze over cities and industrial regions actually causes a cooling. If we could have air as clear as it was in medieval times, our temps would be MUCH higher.

And we are currently in a period when sun activity should lead to global cooling instead of the frightening rate of warming.

Temperature pattern over last 13,000 years

I could find no reference specifically discussing 13,000 years before the present, but denialist Lord Monckton [PDF document] claims that the past 10,000 years were warmer than the present. As usual for this man, he is cherrypicking.

The claim is based on Easterbrook’s work on Greenland ice cores, critically examined here. These ice cores looked at temperature indicators up to 1855. Um… current human-driven global warming was just starting to take off then. Also, one location can only be a component of the total examination of a global pattern.

Easterbrook is quoted as claiming, “There has been no significant warming from 1987 to the present, so the top of the core is representative of the present day climate in Greenland.” I don’t know what planet he is on, but all the records I’ve looked at show that global temps have been climbing for the sky since.

We are in an interglacial period

True. So what?

If there were no human interference in climate, that would end in about 1000 years. It is ending now, with extreme rapidity, by going into a full greenhouse world, like the one that ended the Permian period 250 million years ago.

If goes below 200 parts/million…

It is now officially above 400 ppm the year around. I don’t think this is a worry.

There has been a warming since the 1750s

This is back to the Medieval Warm Period. It ended. That means, that areas where it was observed got cooler again. Then, things swung up once more.

Have another look at the Morberg graph above. It shows the pattern.

Conclusion

I truly wish I could reverse my conclusion that humans are cooking this planet, but the evidence supports my view, not Hiazar’s.

References

Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D. M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N. M. & Wibjörn, K. (2005). Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, 433 (7026), pp 613-617.

Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D., (2012). Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D08101, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187

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About Dr Bob Rich

I am a professional grandfather. My main motivation is to transform society to create a sustainable world in which my grandchildren and their grandchildren in perpetuity can have a life, and a life worth living. This means reversing environmental idiocy that's now threatening us with extinction, and replacing culture of greed and conflict with one of compassion and cooperation.
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8 Responses to There IS no global warming?

  1. svenaake says:

    Bob – you are so right. Nice article. It is more important than ever to stand up against the deceivers and their massive propaganda machine financed by the fossil fuel interests. If you want more information on this topic, I have made a chapter in my e-book here: https://agreenerfutureblog.wordpress.com/2-global-warming/
    As you can see, I have made a link to your article at the bottom

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Dr Bob Rich says:

    Thank you, Sven.
    I think this is an honest man who has been deceived. They are legion.
    I encourage visitors to this page to follow up your link.
    🙂
    Bob

    Like

    • svenaake says:

      Absolutely. The fossil fuel mafia are masters of deceit. And they are now fighting with their backs against the wall. They see the end of the fossil fuels coming. The world’s richest company: Aramco, owned by the Saudi family, what else do they have but oil? Saudi Arabia, Quatar, the emirates, Uzbhekistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, irak, Nigeria – the entire OPEC – what is their alternative sources to income but fossil fuels? Aramco has ExxonMobil, Shell and the other Seven oil sisters as partners, and are thus the biggest economic entity in the world. When a saudi prince tells Fox news, mr Murdoch, the Bush family, the entire Donald government, to jump, they jump. What is Mr Putin without the income from fossil fuels? His economy stands and falls with oil and gas. No wonder Mr Putin and the fossil fuel lover Mr donald have common interests. They are fighting for some more years of fossil fuels. They know they have lost in the long run, but if they can prolong the fossil fuel era by 10 years, they would have made trillions in profit. If they jeopardice our planet in doing so, so be it. I have compiled the information with sources here: https://ufbutv.com/2014/08/11/over-to-renewables-now/

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Dr Bob Rich says:

    There is a cup labeled:
    HE WHO DIES WITH THE MOST WEALTH IS THE WINNER!
    That says it all.

    Like

    • svenaake says:

      Did you hear the story of the very rich man who prayed to God and asked – please dear God – I have struggled so hard all my life for my wealth. Please let me bring some of it to heaven. God refused. The rule is: you can bring nothing. But the rich man kept on nagging. Finally god gave in. Ok. bring a suitcase.
      The rich man filled a suitcase with gold and kept it under his bed, holding it tight every night. The night he died, he managed to hold on. Arriving at the pearly gates with his suitcase, St peter stopped him and said that no luggage allowed. But I have a deal, the rich guy says. Ok, St peter says. But I have to check your suitcase. Please open. He opens. St peter is quiet for a long time. “You bring pavement?”

      Like

  4. Dr Bob Rich says:

    Took me a while to get it. 🙂

    Like

    • svenaake says:

      You need the religious background you know. In afterlife we shall walk on streets of gold, according to some of the rumours from those who have “seen” it.

      Anyway, from the streets of gold to the changing climates of our world. Here is another article I forgot I wrote:

      Yes, climate has varied before – many times. And all were caused by natural forces. Hundreds of millions of years ago, enormous, non-eruptive volcanoes emitted greenhouse gases for thousands of years. Super-volcanic eruptions caused rapid cooling and at times might have brought about new ice ages.

      What happens now, is no natural climate variation, it is a real climate change caused by human activities, such as burning of enormous amounts of fossil fuels, the clearing of rain forests, land use change, cement production and new forms of agriculture.

      The solar forcing – the insolation – has not increased the last forty years. There is no special warming Milankovich effect like we had in the Holocen optimum some 5000-8000 years ago; there are no big non-eruptive volcanoes pumping greenhouse gases into the air. There is no other explanation for the present global warming than human activity. We can already observe how the Earth’s climate and with it the world’s ecosystems are changing at an accelerating pace.
      https://ufbutv.com/2014/05/30/climate-change-has-happened-before-so-why-worry/

      Like

  5. Dr Bob Rich says:

    Thank you, Sven.

    The trouble is, people who disagree with us don’t believe the evidence. There is a process everyone is subject to, called cognitive dissonance. If what I see, hear or am told is in conflict with my deeply held beliefs, and/or my self-interest, it is far easier to distort my perceptions than to change my beliefs.

    So, they choose to slide over the evidence as if it wasn’t there, to cherry-pick, to use argument ad hominem against the bearers of the message, to believe in bizarre conspiracy theories.

    This is not a function of intelligence or honesty, but a way to emotionally survive without having to admit to themselves that they need to make major lifestyle changes, to admit that they were in error, which would be a terrible thing.

    I have designed a workshop I’ve run a few times on how to address this issue and move their opinions. Basically, shouting the evidence louder makes them believe their stuff stronger. So, we need to sidestep, to find points of agreement and invite them to explore from that.

    For example, the disease-causing aspects of burning coal, the destruction of topsoil by factory-chemical agriculture, the terrible extinction rates are potential points of entry.

    Like

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